Readers Choice Award 2016
Contact Us | 1-800-354-5664

myPropertyAlerts and more
myLongRealty - Login or  

Log into your myLongRealty account

featuring myPropertyAlerts and more

Don't have an account?

We value your privacy.

Setup myPropertyAlerts with a myLongRealty Account

Local. Accurate. Timely.

Already have an account? Log in here.

    • No spam. Complete privacy.

Home Search
Selling Your Home
Home Values
Market Conditions
Get a Mortgage

Signs Pointing to an Arizona Housing Recovery

May 3, 2012

If you have been listening to the national media outlets recently, you have been hearing rumblings of the start of a housing recovery. What does this mean for us hear in Arizona?

Buyer Demand is Strong

Tucson Jan-Apr 2011 Jan-Apr 2012 Change
New Contracts Written 5,320 7,120 +34%
Closings 3,951 4,500 +14%
Phoenix Jan-Apr 2011 Jan-Apr 2012 Change
New Contracts Written 35,621 30,441 -14%
Closings 33,113 30,992 -6%

So you may be asking, Tucson sales are up but Phoenix is down? I thought the Phoenix market was very strong right now? The answer is addressed below, and it has to do with a shortage of listing inventory.

A Shortage of Listing Inventory

While buyer demand has increased, the amount of available listing inventory has gone down significantly – resulting in a lower Months Supply of Inventory (the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory). The lower the number, the warmer the market. 6 months is considered a “balanced market”, anything under that gets into a seller’s market. Let’s take a look at where we stand now versus this time last year.

Tucson Apr 2011 Apr 2012 Change
Months of Inventory 5.5 4.2 -24%
Phoenix Apr 2011 Apr 2012 Change
Months of Inventory 3.7 2.5 -32%

In Phoenix, many parts of the market are experiencing multiple bids, bidding wars and homes selling in days, or even hours.

The Phoenix market has seen continued activity in luxury, with 365 luxury properties going under contract in the first quarter 2012, and Phoenix is down to 13.6 months of luxury inventory - one of the lowest levels in the last 2 years.

Upward Pressure Building on Prices

We have increasing demand from buyers and a shortage of inventory. Basic economics tells us that the factors should start impacting prices. Let’s take a look at the trends. Indeed, we are seeing a recent uptick in pricing in Tucson and a very clear upward trend in Phoenix.

Tucson Pricing 5-4-2012
Phoenix Pricing 5-4-2012

Less Distressed Sales

One of the final indicators to look at is what percentage of homes sales are distressed, meaning they are bank owned properties or short sales.

Tucson Sept 2011 Apr 2012
% Distressed Sales 59.5% 43.4%
Phoenix Sept 2011 Apr 2012
% Distressed Sales 59% 41.9%

We can clearly see a significant decrease in the ratio of distressed sales in the marketplace as compared to last Fall, at its peak. Another sign of a recovering market.

This data all put together should help you get a picture of where the market is and is heading. The market in Arizona has bottomed already and is now in recovery – which creates an opportunity for both buyers and sellers alike.

These statistics are based on information obtained from the TARMLS and ARMLS using Brokermetrics software on 5/3/2012. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

Real Estate Market Articles

The Real Estate Market Is Getting Stronger

How Scary is the Housing Affordability Index?

Do Homeowners Realize Their Equity Position Has Changed?

Put Your Housing Cost To Work For You!

How To Get The Most Money When Selling Your House

5 Great Ways to Save on Moving Costs

Important Things You Need to Know To Be Ready for the Changes in Mortgage Laws

The Market Warmed Up in May

Homeownership as an Investment: The Role of Price Appreciation

Why Tax Planning for Real Estate Has Become More Important

February Sees an Uptick in Real Estate Activity

New York Times: Homeownership is Best Way To Build Wealth

Harvard's 5 Financial Reasons to Buy a Home

Luxury Housing Is Alive

Balance Returns to Arizona Housing

Want to Sell Your House? Price it Right!

It's a Price Sensitive Market, Again

Is Housing Returning to a Balanced Market?

Trends in Arizona Housing

Housing Market Trends through 2013

Mortgage Interest Rates: Where Are They Headed?

Tips for Home Shopping in a Seller's Market

FHA Will Increase it's Annual Mortgage Insurance Premium

State of the Tucson Housing Market

Arizona Housing Not So Distressed Any More

Tucson Housing Deflating or Recovering? Get the Real Story

In Real Estate it’s also Price, Price, Price

A Shortage of Housing Inventory?

Signs of an Arizona Housing Recovery

The Arizona Luxury Market Breathing Life

Tucson Home Prices Up 7% in March

Is the Tide of Distressed Home Sales in Arizona Changing?

The Start of the Housing Upturn

What’s Up With the Arizona Housing Market?

Arizona Housing Gains Momentum Heading Into 2012